Some thoughts on technology and progress, how some jobs may be extinct because of it and the need for Malaysia and Malaysians to realise

The flower in the pic can produce rubber...imagine what would happen to our rubber industry if the process is perfected.

We are all aware of the low price of petroleum these days. This was caused by oversupply due to the United States of America suddenly becoming a net exporter of oil, the Arabs kept their production quotas high and China's economy slowing down. Oil is undoubtedly cheap these days but the surprising thing is that aside from pump prices being low, everything else is still high. I don't really see a 4 liter pack of fully synthetic engine oil suddenly being below RM100. Of course this could be down to production costs that aren't petroleum based. Again, something still has to maintain the overheads of the petroleum companies. 

But I do not want to talk about why oil or pump prices are cheap these days. Another thing that actually relates to the car is rubber. I note that the news states rubber prices are low that rubber tappers are struggling to be able to survive. There is a global drop in rubber consumption. Again, with a slowdown in the economy, especially in China, everything is partly affected. With a decrease in production, there would be a decrease in raw material going to a factory as well as products leaving the factory. This means less transporters and less transporters on the road means less vehicle use, which means less tyre wear. It is a vicious cycle that cannot be stopped. 

Of course, the problem is that if you are not prepared to face such a situation. The poor usually are never prepared. It is obviously up to the government to subsidise people in need. But I have to also warn you folks that the government of any country usually reacts to a certain situation slowly. Market forces are a powerful thing that is sometimes hard to fathom. Conspicary theorists would blame it on the illuminati and other secret organisations who somehow manage to manipulate everything. But sometimes, progress and also the lack of it can kill an economy.

Malaysia is in a predicament. I will set aside the issue of ineptness of the people running the country by giving you an example on how progress can kill an economy. In as late as the early 1990s, there was a 'perahu kotak' (box boat) ferry service across the Muar River connecting the small town of Panchor to Gersik. Panchor was the largest town this side of the river and people also used it to go to Pagoh. It was a business for the owners of the perahu kotak. They had a few boats and employed a few men to pilot or row them. People used them and even motorcyclists used them to cross the Muar River. However, once the bridge was completed in the 1990s, the business died a natural death. The same goes to other sorts of work. Like a switchboard operator for telephone connectivity. Everything is done electronically these days. 

So what has this got to do with rubber tapping? Well, it is manual labour. Eventually there would be some cheap made in China rubber tapping machine that could replace humans. But I think that whilst we are now hearing complaints of cheap rubber prices affecting rubber tappers in Malaysia, the main issue is that technological advancement may even make the whole process of cultivating rubber trees as a business may be heading towards extinction if tyre companies find a way to perfect rubber from the dandelion flower. I've been reading a bit of this and a bit of that over the past two years. Continental tyres have been running trucks with prototype dandelion rubber tyres since 2014. In around August 2015, there was a report in the Guardian about research done by a European initiative called 

"DRIVE4EU - 'Dandelion Rubber and Inulin Valorization and Exploitation for Europe', a demonstration project, aims at the development of the production chain of natural rubber and inulin from Russian dandelions. The objective of the project is to set up a new European chain for the production and processing of natural rubber. This will enable the EU to become less dependent on the import of natural rubber and at the same time to respond to the threat of a global rubber shortage."

I however have to state that this should be taken as a warning to all rubber tree cultivation nations. If this initiative is successful, expect the price of rubber from rubber trees to fall even further. Rubber prices may be at an eight year low right now but imagine if the Russian dandelion cultivation starts. Would it allow the European Union to forgo South East Asian rubber? That, is a whole market disappearing. 

Crude oil is also facing something aside from the slowdown in China and the over supply by the Arabs. The production costs have been going down especially over in America and Canada. They have managed to bring down the cost to extract oil from shale or sand. This is how people innovate and improve. With technology, things get better. 

So we are now faced with low crude oil prices. We are now facing with low rubber prices. Palm oil has relatively been stable and there is that hugely polluting bauxite mining that actually helps a tiny bit too. We need to innovate and think of new ways to stay ahead. We cannot just be staying put. How large  is a barrel of crude oil that we pump off the coast of Terengganu? 42gallons or 158liters or so. It costs how much? USD40 per barrel. When we export one barrel of crude oil we send out the equivalent of 158 bottles of 1 liter mineral water bottles. That is a heck of a lot of space. 

And then when Apple Inc of America exports one of its IPhone 6Plus to Malaysia is is as large as your palm for USD1,000. How many barrels of crude oil do we need to export to pay for one measly IPhone 6 Plus? 

We need to change. We need more technological advancement instead of being complacent. We need more innovators, scientists and people with ideas. I do not think we need to think about petty issues and those who force religion down our throats. Especially to the Muslim Malay who are the majority in Malaysia and who are gullible enough to think that all of these are not important. Enough of ustads and religious faith healers. We need more Ibnu Sina - the Muslim Persian (note that he is not from Saudi Arabia) chap wrote books on medicine, science, mathematics, physics and even poetry. You want Malaysia to be Islamic? Then produce more engineers, scientists, doctors, researchers instead of just blindly listening to ceramahs or talks by some supposed religious man these days (asking petty questions like how to bathe or how many wives can I have). It is more islamic to ask questions and to do research instead of being spoonfed information. 

So yes. The rubber tapper problem will not go away anytime soon. As I said, technology may make a job extinct. It may make that rubber tapper or that oil rig technician who works on a rig off Terengganu. We have to be prepared for everything. Heck, people like me who write reviews about cars may even find themselves reviewing from the back seat or totally out of a job when self driving cars become commonplace in the world. 

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